AGP Executive Report

Spain’s World Cup momentum: Spain beat Austria 3-0 in the Round of 32, with goals from Oyarzabal (2) and Porro, and now face Portugal or Croatia in the Round of 16—another sign La Roja are peaking at the right time. Tech & state security: Spain has ordered state-owned firms to stop contracting with Palantir, citing concerns over access to sensitive defense and national-security data. Public finance outlook: Spain’s AIReF forecast points to public debt falling below 100% of GDP for the first time since the pandemic, a key milestone for fiscal planning. Energy & renewables deal: Exus Renewables teamed up with Germany’s Pure Energy to link asset management with trading execution, with Spain flagged as a target expansion market. Austerity vs. social stability: Commentary highlights how austerity is eroding governments that impose it, feeding into broader debate on Europe’s fiscal choices. Education & inclusion: A piece on “summer slide” stresses that learning loss isn’t inevitable, with support options like Extended School Year for eligible students.

Spain Heat & Travel Pressure: Murcia’s Mediterranean waters are already at 27°C and forecasters warn of another “Iberian oven” heatwave with temperatures pushing past 40°C this weekend, raising fresh pressure on health systems and summer travel. Aviation & Border Checks: Ryanair flags seven European airports hit by long delays from the EU Entry/Exit System (EES), naming Tenerife South, Palma, Alicante and Malaga among the worst in Spain, while urging earlier arrivals. Payments Fraud Collaboration: The Swiss Bankers Association and SIX launched a fraud-fighting summit focused on coordinated action across the digital payments chain, including how AI is changing fraud tactics. Tech & Cloud for Europe: OpenNebula and Waldur unveiled an integration to let users self-provision and manage traditional and AI workloads via a single interface, targeting federated AI infrastructure and EuroHPC-style ecosystems. Corporate Deal Watch: Infineon completed its acquisition of ams OSRAM’s non-optical analog and mixed-signal sensor portfolio, adding revenue potential of about €230m for 2026 and strengthening its Edge Systems push. Labour Market Signal: Spain’s registered unemployment fell by 28,739 in June to below 2.3m, helped by summer hiring in tourism and hospitality.

F1 Finance Watch: Mercedes boss Toto Wolff questioned how Ferrari can keep shipping so many upgrades under the 2026 budget cap, pointing to Ferrari’s higher declared upgrade count versus Mercedes. Crypto Regulation in Spain/EU: MiCA’s transition wrap is driving a hard reset for crypto firms; Spain’s regulator is signaling no extra time for non-compliant players, while Binance-related moves keep traders on edge. Banking Cyber Threats: A new banking trojan campaign is targeting Santander and BBVA customers with fake PDF lures, adding to the pressure on Spanish banks’ fraud defenses. Housing & Public Money: Spain’s migrant regularisation drive has topped one million applications, while separate coverage highlights how funding delays can hit local services and wages. Energy & Water Resilience: A study from Andalusia looks at using solar to power irrigation pumping for energy autonomy, aiming to cut reliance on conventional electricity. Markets: Eurozone inflation eased to 2.8% in June as oil prices fall, with European stocks mixed.

Markets & Rates: The Ibex 35 slipped 0.44% to about 19,387 mid-session as oil retreated and investors watched central-bank voices in Sintra, with Lagarde and others in focus. Eurozone Inflation: Eurostat’s flash showed euro area inflation easing to 2.8% in June (from 3.2%), helped by cooling energy and a softer core rate at 2.4%. Crypto Regulation (Spain/EU): Venga won CNMV approval to operate as a MiCA Crypto-Asset Service Provider, ahead of the July 1 transitional deadline. Automotive Industry: BYD is nearing a decision on a second European plant, with Spain and France flagged as likely candidates for brownfield acquisitions. Heat & Health: Spain reported at least 1,028 heat-related deaths, with Aemet saying the first half of 2026 is the hottest on record. Energy/Storage: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for a second round of BESS projects, including Spanish players. Corporate/Finance: Telum Therapeutics secured an €18m Series A to advance hospital-acquired infection treatments. Sports Finance (UEFA): UEFA sanctioned Chelsea and Strasbourg for financial monitoring breaches, with Chelsea’s fine reduced and Strasbourg hit hardest.

Crypto Regulation Shock: MiCA’s July 1 deadline is pushing crypto firms to migrate toward Dubai as EU-authorisation rules tighten, with Spain among the most common origin countries for inquiries. Banking Strategy: A report says Santander is quietly targeting the US, while another piece warns banks could lose the “commercial spend” relationship as finance moves into embedded workflows. Immigration & Labour Market: Spain’s mass regularisation drew over 1 million applications, with the government framing it as needed for the economy and pensions as processing now begins. Energy & Industry: Equinor is exiting Japan’s offshore wind market after dropping its renewables target, underlining a return to oil-and-gas and integrated power focus. Tech & Infrastructure: Alto Infrastructure broke ground on a Granada AI/HPC data centre campus aiming for €3bn+ investment, with first phase power online in 2027. Defence Supply Chain: Rheinmetall will supply Ukraine with several tens of thousands of 155-mm shells and propellant charges, produced at its Spain plant. Climate & Power Costs: Europe’s heatwave is being linked to climate change and is also driving electricity price pressure and higher bills in Spain.

Crypto Regulation: Spain’s watchdog says there will be no extra time for non-MiCA compliant crypto firms, with Binance facing EU service curbs from July 1 after missing the licence deadline. Housing & Mortgages: Home sales in Spain fell 10.2% in April year-on-year while prices rose 9.4%, and mortgage signatures for home purchases dropped 6.3%, according to notaries. Banking & Credit Access: ClaroVeo launches a free “solvency report” tool to help consumers understand credit-file data before applying for loans or mortgages. Public Support for SMEs: Experian reports public subsidies and aid to companies in Spain hit €28.0bn in 2024, down 38.2% vs 2023, with SMEs taking most of the total. Energy & Cost Pressure: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher, adding strain as bills were already climbing. Corporate Finance: ArcelorMittal completes the first tranche of its share buyback and starts a second tranche. Tech & Payments: Iberika Telecom rolls out Iberik.IA, an AI voice agent integrated into its virtual PBX for GDPR/LOPD-compliant customer service automation.

Fiscal Support: Spain’s Council of Ministers approved a €1.8bn package to cushion the Middle East crisis, extending tax relief and support for households and firms, easing fuel tax relief from July–September while keeping discounts for transport operators, farmers and fishermen, expanding fertilizer subsidies, and phasing out the electricity production tax (5% in 2026, 3.5% in 2027, zero in 2028). Energy Policy: Spain also reiterated it wants the EU to stick to the scheduled Russian LNG/gas phase-out, even as Bilbao’s LNG hub chief warned against an abrupt 2027 ban due to energy-security risks. Crypto Regulation: Spain’s watchdog ruled out extensions for non-MiCA compliant crypto firms, signaling no extra time for licensing as Binance faces EU service restrictions. Household Pressure: New figures point to housing and food taking up about half of Spanish household budgets, underlining cost-of-living strain. Arbitration/Markets: The US Supreme Court declined to hear Spain’s immunity appeal tied to Energy Charter Treaty awards, a reminder of ongoing cross-border investor risk. Tech & Research: Meta unveiled “Brain2Qwerty,” developed with Spain’s Basque research center, decoding typed text from brain activity. Global Finance: The World Bank backed Spain with a new Madrid office, aiming to channel more private investment via the Spanish capital.

Spain Growth Update: The Spanish government is set to lift its 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.4 points to 2.6% under a new macro framework for the 2027 Budget package, aiming for expansion above 2% through 2029. Eurozone Mood: The European Commission says eurozone economic sentiment rose in June, with Spain up 0.7 points, though labour expectations stayed under pressure. Youth & Housing Pressure: PwC Foundation’s Synthetic Youth Indicator flags worsening conditions for Spanish youth versus 1995, with housing the biggest drag. Labour Rights Clash: CCOO plans to take Mutua Universal’s withdrawal of collective social benefits to Spain’s Supreme Court and the EU court after a National Court rejection. Crypto/Regulation: Binance is reported to be cutting off EU services after missing MiCA licensing deadlines, as Coinbase pushes ahead with a Luxembourg MiCA hub. Aviation Finance: The EIB approved a record €3bn financing package for Airbus R&D across France, Germany and Spain. Energy & Power: Iberdrola inaugurated Italy’s 243MW Fenix PV plant, backed by EIB finance. Security/Crime: Spain’s Guardia Civil helped dismantle an airport duty-free theft ring feeding black-market shipments to the UK, with 11 arrests.

Space & Defense Finance: Spain-backed FOSSA Systems raised about $10.5m to expand its sovereign satellite connectivity push, with support linked to Spain’s SETT and a total funding tally nearing €20m, as Europe ramps up “sovereign” space capabilities. Crypto Regulation Watch: Binance reported $400m+ in weekly net outflows as the MiCA deadline nears, while other reports point to EU license moves and shifting compliance routes for crypto firms. Banking/Markets Angle: Spain’s stock market ownership is increasingly in the hands of foreign funds, with coverage highlighting who effectively controls the Ibex 35. Energy & Policy: A Spanish gas hub chief urged the EU to postpone a Russian LNG ban, feeding into the wider debate on energy security and prices. Real Estate & Cost of Living: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher just as bills were already climbing, adding pressure to household budgets. Sports-Token Crossover: PSG’s transfer hunt for a versatile defender is framed alongside the ongoing role of its $PSG fan token, underscoring how clubs keep blending crypto and fan engagement. Humanitarian/Spain Consular: Spain’s Foreign Ministry says 17 Spaniards have died and 150 are missing after Venezuela’s earthquakes, with rescue teams focused on 12 people still trapped.

Tax Policy: Spain has removed Gibraltar from its non-cooperative tax blacklist after 35 years, citing a bilateral tax cooperation deal and OECD compliance, including Pillar Two participation. Parliament & Governance: Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s secretary and PSOE Navarra’s former “number two” Ramón Alzórriz are set to be summoned to Senate investigative committees tied to the “Koldo case” and SEPI. Banking & Markets: A study on Spanish urban tourism shows Madrid is driving visitor scale while Barcelona is leaning on higher-spend stays, with implications for local property and hospitality demand. Real Estate & Wealth Flows: Non-resident foreigners accounted for 18.8% of home purchases in Spain in 2025 (52,781 homes), with Dutch buyers leading and demand concentrated along the coasts. Crypto & Regulation: Binance is reported to be locked out of Europe on July 1 as MiCA deadlines bite, while other firms race for MiCA licensing routes. Public Safety & Crime: Police dismantled an international Costa del Sol network producing counterfeit UK driving licences, seizing hundreds of forged documents and a clandestine printing lab. Energy & Cost of Living: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher, adding pressure to already-rising bills. Humanitarian Response: After Venezuela’s double earthquake, Spain-based collection and donation efforts are ramping up as the death toll climbs and thousands remain missing.

Venezuela Earthquake Response: Spain’s Military Emergencies Unit is among the foreign teams rushing to help after twin quakes, as the death toll climbs above 1,400 and Spain reports six dead with 133 missing and 133 missing still unaccounted for. Crypto & Scams: Cape Verde’s World Cup run is drawing scammers—unauthorized “official” tokens are already trading on Solana despite no official blockchain partnerships, a reminder to treat hype with caution. EU Crypto Regulation: Binance is again in the spotlight as EU MiCA deadlines tighten, with reports of EU service restrictions and licensing pressure affecting crypto access for traders. Spain Defense Industry: Spain plans 15 defense programs this year with Indra, Navantia and Airbus at the center, aiming to sustain 2% of GDP spending and keep contracts flowing. Real Economy/Property: Luxury buyers continue to look to Spain as a haven, while heatwave pressure is also pushing up electricity prices and household bills.

World Cup Shockwave: Cape Verde became the smallest nation to reach the World Cup knockout rounds after a 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia, setting up a round-of-32 clash with Argentina and Messi. Injury Watch (Man United): Manuel Ugarte’s stretchered knee injury after Uruguay’s 1-0 loss to Spain could derail Manchester United’s midfield plans, with scans pending. Venezuela Aid (Spain): Spain updated earthquake figures: 133 Spaniards still missing, 14 located under rubble, and five deaths confirmed, as rescue teams and initial aid are deployed. Crypto Regulation (MiCA): Binance will restrict services in the EU from July 1 after missing the MiCA licensing deadline, following a withdrawn application in Greece. Tax Policy (Spain): Spain removed Gibraltar from its non-cooperative tax blacklist, alongside other territories, citing updated OECD/EU transparency standards. Security (Tenerife): Guardia Civil dismantled the Preda clan, arresting 11 over airport duty-free thefts across Europe including Tenerife South, with alleged money laundering and smuggling. Heat Risk (Europe): AFP forecasts up to 193m people in Europe facing temperatures above 35C on Saturday, with Spain among record-hit countries.

Crypto Regulation in Spain: Iqana says it has secured MiCA authorization for discretionary management of crypto-asset portfolios, becoming the only Spanish firm with that specific permit as the July 1 transitional deadline nears. EU Compliance Pressure: Binance warns EU users it will cut services after missing the MiCA license deadline, with reports of withdrawal instructions reaching customers in Spain and other countries. Spain–Mexico Diplomacy: King Felipe VI met Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico City, signaling a reset after years of diplomatic tension. Banking/Markets Watch: The Bank of Spain is forecast to return to profits in 2026 after avoiding losses for three years, while Santander is reported to be moving from AI experimentation to execution. Real Estate & Wealth Flows: Reuters reports luxury buyers are increasingly targeting Spain’s Madrid and Costa del Sol amid geopolitical uncertainty, pushing foreign share of home sales higher. Climate Risk: A Europe-wide heatwave is being linked to record temperatures and rising death toll concerns, with Spain among the hardest hit.

Crypto Regulation: Binance says it will stop serving EU customers after failing to secure a MiCA licence by 30 June, emailing users in Poland, Italy, Spain and France on how to withdraw funds as the 1 July deadline approaches. Housing Market: Solvia expects Spanish home prices to rise 5%–8% in 2026, with sales stabilising near 2025 levels as supply remains tight. Retail & Energy: Eroski will transfer its 40 gas stations to Petroprix by year-end, aiming for continuity amid shifts in mobility and energy habits. Banking/Markets: The Ibex 35 opens slightly lower (around -0.2%) as Middle East tensions weigh on sentiment; Arteche’s new shares start trading and Izertis secures €133.5m syndicated financing. Politics/Legal: Former PM José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero asks a court to void his corruption probe tied to the Plus Ultra bailout, arguing rights were violated. Corporate/Finance: Dubai Holding is reportedly considering an investment in data-centre builder Hscale as it expands in Europe. Global Risk: Scientists link Europe’s heatwave intensity to human-caused climate change.

Venezuela Disaster: Twin earthquakes (7.2 and 7.5) struck northern Venezuela within 39 seconds, killing at least 164 and injuring nearly 1,000 as rescue teams race through collapsed areas and fears grow of far higher casualties. Spain Politics & Regional Economy: In Cantabria’s debate on the state of the region, the PP’s Juan José Alonso defended the regional executive’s “responsible” management and rejected the opposition’s “apocalyptic” line, arguing the government is attracting investment and improving solvency. Spain Investment & Jobs: SETT (state-backed tech transformation investor) plans nearly €40m to back two Spanish production initiatives, aiming to generate hundreds of jobs across filming, studios and services. Banking/Markets Watch: Santander is reported to be considering up to 3,000 early retirements in Spain as it pushes an AI shift. Cyber & Crypto Risk: Polymarket says hackers stole about $3m from users after a compromised third-party vendor injected malicious code into its site; the firm says it will refund victims in full. Energy/Cost Pressure: Spain’s heatwave is pushing electricity prices higher, adding strain to already-rising bills.

Pension Anxiety in Spain: Funcas survey finds 68% of Spaniards fear pensions will become a serious burden for the economy, with 70% saying younger people will be hit hardest and 79% of workers doubting reforms will be enough. Pensions Policy Push: BME backs “auto-enrolment” for employment pension plans (Pillar II) to widen participation and protect adequacy as Spain ages. Banking & Risk Management: PIB Group appoints Fernando Franco as Head of Surety and Credit to strengthen financial protection and risk advice for companies. Healthcare Finance: French insurer Alan secures a €480m Series G round valuing it at €5.5bn, aiming to scale prevention insurance across markets including Spain. Housing Pressure Map: A new report highlights Spain’s rural vacancy problem, with 3.8m unused homes and many empty properties in small towns, while cities face a 750,000-home shortfall. Energy & Climate Costs: Spain’s heatwave is driving up electricity prices, adding strain on already rising bills. Property Retail Expansion: Costa del Sol’s El Ingenio shopping centre in Vélez-Málaga plans a €14m expansion adding 4,500 sqm and 14 new retail units. Global Shock: Venezuela’s twin earthquakes kill at least 164 and injure nearly 1,000, with La Guaira hardest hit.